I’ve always enjoyed opening up Fandom Correspondents for fellow writers, especially when they’re on a subject that I don’t personally know as much about. That’s exactly what’s happening here : My dear friend Chase has written out a question for each NFL team and since the season starts this Sunday, I figured it’d be a perfect time to publish this. We’ll be doing 2 divisions a day, one from NFC and one from AFC. If You’re interested in reading about the other divisions then you can follow the links here(NFL North) and here(NFL South) and Here(NFL East) – Vance
One Question I Look Forward to Seeing Answered for Each NFL Team
As the beginning of the NFL season approaches, there are so many things I am eager to see. To keep this relatively short (edit: I didn’t), I will narrow things down to one question per team, and while I consider myself more than a casual fan of football, I am more inclined to pay attention to the offensive side of the ball than the defensive side. That’s what most of my questions will address.
NFC West
Arizona Cardinals: How does Kyler Murray change this offense?
Evaluating quarterbacks is incredibly difficult. While most successful quarterbacks are former first round picks (24 of the 32 quarterbacks with the most starts last year were), there are swings and misses in the draft every year. From 2000 to 2010, about 74% of drafted quarterbacks failed to start more than 30 career games. Even among first round picks, most quarterbacks don’t last more than 5 years as the primary starter for an NFL team. I say all this to show that it’s very difficult to predict how good Kyler Murray will be, but we can try. The only college quarterbacks in the last 10 years to come anywhere near what Kyler Murray accomplished last season at Oklahoma (4,361 yards passing and 1,001 yards rushing) are Deshaun Watson, Marcus Mariota, Johnny Manziel, and Robert Griffin III. Through two years, Deshaun Watson looks to be a successful NFL starter. Marcus Mariota is entering his 5th season as the (presumed) starter of the Tennessee Titans. While he isn’t really blowing people away with stellar play, he has posted 3 straight seasons with winning records as a starter. Johnny Manziel’s career did not last long. His on-field play was up-and-down, but part of his downfall was his character. He flashed with some exciting play with the Browns, but was ultimately unsuccessful. RG3 took the league by storm for a couple years until the injury bug derailed his career. Even if these aren’t 4 world beaters, they’ve had better careers than many others. If Kyler Murray has a floor of Mariota, healthy RG3, or sane Manziel and a ceiling of Deshaun Watson or higher, there is reason for excitement. Rookie starting QBs usually struggle to win games, with a few exceptions like Andrew Luck, Dak Prescott, and Ben Roethlisberger. Looking at the Cardinals’ schedule, it would be impressive if they had a record better than 6-10, but I’m looking forward to seeing if Kyler Murray uses his versatile skill set to improve the team or if the Cardinals look like the same team that “earned” the number one pick they used to draft him.
Los Angeles Rams: What happens with the Todd Gurley situation?
Todd Gurley has been one of the most explosive running backs in recent years. He’s had 40 TDs in 2 seasons. Shaun Alexander (48 TDs in 2004 and 2005), Marshall Faulk (47 TDs in 2000 and 2001), Emmitt Smith (47 TDs in 1994 and 1995), Priest Holmes (51 TDs in 2002 and 2003), and LaDainian Tomlinson (51 TDs in 2005 and 2006) have done that. He’s also put up over 3,900 scrimmage yards in that span. (That list looks longer, but it’s impressive nonetheless.) Having an arthritic knee makes it feel unlikely he has a third year with this success. No one else has kept being this productive for three years either. So, if Gurley either takes a smaller workload or suffers a setback, the most likely options are that one or both of Malcolm Brown and Darrell Henderson picks up the workload. Brown has spent 4 seasons in the NFL, but has never exceeded 300 yards from scrimmage. However, in limited work last year, he was extremely efficient by averaging of 4.93 yards per rush and 10.4 yards per reception. Still, he only had 48 touches, so it’s hard to trust the numbers too much. Henderson is a 3rd-round draft selection from Memphis who has picked up some buzz as the fresh face. Truth is, the Rams offense should be good pretty much regardless of who’s getting the touches. Whoever the coaching staff trusts is probably going to look great in this system with the offensive line they’re employing. The question is how those touches get split up.
San Francisco 49ers: How does this backfield unfold?
As the season draws nearer, the answer to this gains a little more clarity. Unfortunately, Jerick McKinnon again finds himself on season-ending IR, further muddling his future in the league. This leaves two names: Tevin Coleman and Matt Breida, both of whom made cameo appearances earlier in my diatribe. Coleman had a solid season with the Falcons last year despite what seems to be a negative perception of his performance. He was solid in the role and is seemingly the frontrunner to be the nominal starter. I have to think he would succeed in Mike Shanahan’s offense if he got the opportunity. Matt Breida, on the other hand, has already seen the opportunity. We saw earlier that Breida is in great and limited company as a running back who averaged 5 yards per rush and 7 per reception last year. Breida was truly one of the most efficient players in football despite being on an offense left in shambles by injuries last year. On that note, Breida struggled with injuries of his own. While he played 14 games, he was constantly leaving games with injuries and battling injuries from the week before. I don’t know if he’s “lucky” or has an insane pain tolerance, but it’s hard not to say injuries are at least a little bit of a concern for him. If he can stay healthy, he may take over as the starter. At the very least, I believe he and Coleman would both get plenty of run with the offense, but one of them may thrive more than the other.
Seattle Seahawks: Does Rashaad Penny look like an NFL running back?
This offense is committed to the run. The Seahawks led the league in rushing yards and were second in the NFL in rushing attempts, behind only the Ravens, who pounded the ball with both the running back and quarterback position. Chris Carson, as well as Bengal Joe Mixon, were quietly top-5 rushing yard players last season, both going for over 1,100 yards. Mike Davis was second on the team in both attempts and rushing yards while also catching the most passes of any Seahawk running back. However, then-rookie Rashaad Penny was also in the mix and I’m sure the Seahawks would love to get him more involved. Of the three running backs, he had the fewest rushing attempts and the fewest receptions despite posting the highest average yards per rush and per reception. The team was so good at running the ball with any of their options that they may have been content with using Carson and Davis more while letting Penny get acclimated to the NFL. Or, maybe the coaching staff saw more from Carson and Davis is practice. For whatever reason, Penny wasn’t given a heavy workload and I haven’t heard any offseason rumors about Penny surpassing Carson. If anything, there seems to be more confidence in Carson going into this season than last season. Penny may have his work cut out for him, but Mike Davis is with the Bears now, so Penny should be the clear-cut number 2. I’m just not sure how big of an opportunity that will provide.
AFC West
Denver Broncos: Will the Lindsay/Freeman situation work out the same as last year?
It’s not often a team has two great rookie running backs at the same time, but last year the Broncos had both 3rd-round selection Royce Freeman and undrafted free agent Phillip Lindsay, who together ran for 14 TDs and over 1,500 yards. Most accounts seemed to expect Freeman to be primary back heading into the season, but injury problems and, more importantly, impressive play from Lindsay kept him limited. Freeman had just five games with 10+ touches but managed to end the season with just over 4 yards per carry. Lindsay, on the other hand, played in 15 games and had 10 or more touches in 14 of them. He posted an impressive 5.4 yards per carry in addition to having more success in the receiving game than his teammate. The Texans will probably be excited to roll Lindsay out again this year after such a strong season, but the talent is still there with Freeman if he can be healthy and productive. Look to see both running backs used early on, but be on the lookout for one of these running backs to take over instead of being part of a committee.
Kansas City Chiefs: Are we going to see Patrick Mahomes continue this elite-level play?
I’m still in awe over what we saw from this man last year. He threw for 5,097 yards and 50 TDs in his first real season. (I mean, this guy only played one game of his rookie year. This was almost like how Ben Simmons came out in his second year as an NBA player and won Rookie of the Year because he didn’t play his first season, except it was way more impressive.) Mahomes was just the 7th different quarterback to throw for 5,000 yards and just the third to throw for 50+ TDs. Only Peyton Manning had done both in the same season. And again, this was in what amounted to be not much more than a rookie season. Baker Mayfield broke the NFL record for passing TDs by a rookie this past year, and that record was only 27! Many people are projecting negative regression for Mahomes, and that makes sense. You don;t want to go too crazy with expectations for this guy. It’s very rare to have an outlier season and follow it with another outlier season. But…what if this isn’t an outlier for him? What if Mahomes is simply that good? The projections I’m seeing for Mahomes have him in the upper 4,000s in yardage, which feels right. Him hitting 5,000 again is certainly possible, but awfully bold to predict. However, the TD projections are in the 30s, and often not even the high 30s. With similar logic to the yardage, it would be a little much to expect 50 again, but I do kind of expect 40 TDs for him. I really can’t wait to see what this year has in store for him.
Los Angeles Chargers: What happens with Melvin Gordon?
I’m really tempted to ask questions about Philip Rivers, because I’ve long been a member of the “Philip Rivers is kind of underrated” club. However, this fruit is too juicy and hanging too low for me not to pick it. The Melvin Gordon contract dispute seems to be the most likely to extend into the regular season. Is he going to make a trend of running backs holding out and missing games in demand of more compensation? How will the Chargers respond? We may see them give in and pay him, but now that Lamar Miller looks to possibly be out for the season, I expect rumors to ramp up that they would consider a trade.
Oakland Raiders: What does Antonio Brown look like as a Raider?
In what has been an interesting offseason on a few fronts, Antonio Brown has probably had the most wild one in terms of volume of wildness. After a tumultuous finish to his 2018 season, Brown appeared on the Masked Singer, dyed his mustache blonde, changed teams from the Steelers to the Raiders, arrived to camp in a hot air balloon, got frostbite on his feet from cryotherapy in which he didn’t use the proper footwear, filed legal action against the NFL over helmet disputes, threatened to retire, and still is reportedly unhappy with the situation despite assurances that he will play. All this considered, we still haven’t really seen him play football in a while. It seems clear that going from Ben Roethlisberger to Derek Carr is a downgrade, but in addition to that, he may be facing tougher defenses. Even though he has long been the best receiver on his team, the Steelers typically provided more weapons around him who also required attention from the defense. This is a luxury that may not be afforded to him in Oakland. Most people would agree he won’t look like the best wide receiver in the NFL this year, but I want to see just how far down the list he falls.
