I’ve always enjoyed opening up Fandom Correspondents for fellow writers, especially when they’re on a subject that I don’t personally know as much about. That’s exactly what’s happening here : My dear friend Chase has written out a question for each NFL team and since the season starts this Sunday, I figured it’d be a perfect time to publish this. We’ll be doing 2 divisions a day, one from NFC and one from AFC. Today we’re starting with the north since both the Bears and The Packers play on Thursday. – Vance
One Question I Look Forward to Seeing Answered for Each NFL Team
As the beginning of the NFL season approaches, there are so many things I am eager to see. To keep this relatively short (edit: I didn’t), I will narrow things down to one question per team, and while I consider myself more than a casual fan of football, I am more inclined to pay attention to the offensive side of the ball than the defensive side. That’s what most of my questions will address.
NFC North
Chicago Bears: Can Mitch Trubisky guide a great offense?
Last year, the Chicago defense was almost undeniably the best in all of professional football. They forced the most turnovers (having 5 more than the 2nd place Browns), allowed the fewest points, and were one of only three teams to allow less than 300 yards per game. Even in their playoff game, they allowed only 300 yards, forced 2 turnovers, and gave up only 16 points. Still, they lost because their offense only scored 15 points. If Chicago’s defense can be as good as it was last year, they’ll be a good team once again. To be great, this offense needs more consistency, and much of that lies on the shoulders of Mitch Trubisky. This most recent season, he threw for relatively modest totals of 3,223 yards and 24 TDs. Trubisky had some blow-up games. He had four games with over 300 passing yards, including 3 straight games in which he also threw 11 TDs. They need Trubisky to take the next step. If he could get near 4,000 yards and throw for about 30 TDs while keeping drives alive with his legs when necessary, they’ll have a great chance. This may be easier to do if the running game is more successful. The only Bears player with more than 500 yards last year was Jordan Howard, who was inefficient at the position. He had 935 rushing yards on 250 attempts. (Since the year 2000, there have been 240 players rush 250 or more times, and only four of those players had fewer yards than Howard did last year.) That problem may have a solution in promising rookie David Montgomery and how second-year coach Matt Nagy uses him. (Side question: just how good will David Montgomery be?)
Detroit Lions: Was Matthew Stafford’s 2018 an aberration caused by injury, or what we should expect from now on?
From 2011 to 2017, Matthew Stafford started all 16 games every season and was a lock for 4,200 yards or more. He’s one of only 7 quarterbacks ever to throw for 5,000 yards in a season. Then Stafford had his 2018 season, which featured him throwing for only 3,777 yards. (This may have been my fault; I drafted him onto my fantasy team, which seemed to be a statistical death sentence for players last year.) In June, news came out that Stafford played through a broken back during the season. While my initial thoughts on the down season were that this may be the beginning of a career decline, the injury news gives a little hope that he could return to form next year. Despite Stafford’s struggle, second-year receiver Kenny Golladay had his first 1,000-yard season. Marvin Jones was injured for almost half the season. His efficiency dipped a little, but he still put up good numbers for 9 games. Kerryon Johnson, before getting shut down after Week 10, was looking like a force at the running back position and was an effective pass-catcher. These three players could really help Stafford maintain solid output. It isn’t wise to expect much from a rookie tight end, but the Lions also bring in T.J. Hockenson, possibly the most talented pass-catching tight end from this year’s rookie class. Unfortunately, Johnson and Jones had limited work after Golden Tate was traded and Hockenson obviously hasn’t played a regular season game with the Lions, so it’s unclear how a healthy Lions offense will operate. We’ll have to watch how this season unfolds to get our answer.
Green Bay Packers: Could we see Aaron Jones as a 1,500 total yards back?
Aaron Jones missed the first two games last year due to suspension and the final two games due to injury. In the 12 games he did play, Jones racked up 934 total yards. Let’s talk efficiency: as for players with any kind of usage (I chose at least 10 rushes and 10 receptions), Jones was the only running back last year who averaged at least 5.4 yards per rush and 7.8 yards per reception. I’ll admit that’s oddly specific. When allowing a little more room, here are the other running backs with at least 5 yards per rush and 7 yards per reception: Saquon Barkley, Devontae Booker, Matt Breida, Nick Chubb, Austin Ekeler, Melvin Gordon, Duke Johnson, and Christian McCaffrey. This list shows a few things. First, Devontae Booker is a weird inclusion on this list. Maybe he’s better than I thought. Second, the Browns and Chargers must have efficient offenses to support two players on this list. Finally, this is a list of mostly elite players. Barkley, McCaffrey, Gordon, and Chubb are considered some of the best running backs in the NFL (and these specifications exclude Alvin Kamara, considered to be one of the most efficient backs in the league and who is on an explosive offense). Jones is a very talented running back. If his usage increases, he could easily be one of the best statistical running backs this upcoming season. I’m hoping to see Matt LaFleur’s new offense put him to good use.
Minnesota Vikings: Can Dalvin Cook stay healthy?
When talking about Aaron Jones above, I noticed that Alvin Kamara misses out on one elite classification (5 yards per rush and 7 yards per reception) because he averaged 4.6 yards per rush last season, which is still a very good mark. Well guess what. Nevermind, I’ll just tell you: Dalvin Cook also misses out here for the same reason. His 7.6 yards per reception would qualify, but his 4.6 yards per rush leaves him just short (again, this is still a good average).He played 11 games and gained 920 yards from scrimmage, a 16-game pace of 1,338 yards. He’s very talented and, if anything, in line for even more usage. Just about the only downside of Cook is his injury history, which could ruin anyone’s season. While he was pretty healthy as a collegiate athlete at Florida State, he tore his ACL in Week 4 of his rookie season and struggled with hamstring problems last year. He seems healthy entering this year, and is poised for an excellent season if he can see it through.
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens: Can this passing game develop into anything?
In Lamar Jackson’s 7 starts after taking over, he averaged about 162.6 passing yards per game, which is on a 16-game pace of 2,601 passing yards. In the last 7 seasons, only last year’s Arizona Cardinals have been that inept in the passing game. It seems this offense belongs to Jackson now, and they seem to have given him an improved receiving corps. They were a weird team. Despite the nonexistent passing game, they won all but one of Jackson’s regular season starts, with the lone loss being to the Chiefs. However, the only playoff team they beat was the Chargers, a team which dominated them in the Wildcard Round of the playoffs. The defense was/is great. Teams with great defenses who want to run the ball thrive against bad teams in which they can take and maintain the lead, but typically struggle against good teams in games in which they might trail. Will offseason changes and another year for Jackson translate to success in the air? Or will this offense, which rushed the ball more than any other team last year, be limited to its rushing success in 2019?
Cincinnati Bengals: Does Andy Dalton end the season still the favorite to be the Bengals long-term quarterback?
Barring injury, I’d be shocked if Dalton doesn’t begin the season as the Bengals’ starting QB. Really, it doesn’t seem likely that he gets benched this season, as the depth chart includes Jeff Driskel, a former 6th round pick who’s 1-4 as a starter and who has thrown for over 170 yards only one time, and Ryan Finley, an incoming rookie from the 4th round. However, Dalton doesn’t feel like a quarterback who can be counted on for a successful team. In 8 career seasons, Dalton has led the team to the playoffs 4 times (not too shabby), but in those postseason games, he is 0-4 while throwing only 1 touchdown with 6 interceptions and 2 lost fumbles. Dalton is a fine quarterback, but it doesn’t seem he will ever be more than that. The Bengals will have to decide whether they will settle with “fine” or if they want to gamble for better.
Cleveland Browns: Is Jarvis Landry an elite receiver when paired with an elite WR1?
Last year, there was a lot of excitement for Landry’s first season with the Browns. It felt like Landry was destined for a breakout season with the Browns after being stuck with the Dolphins for the first four years of his pro career. However, despite Baker Mayfield having one of the best rookie seasons for a quarterback in NFL history, Jarvis Landry had a statistically disappointing season. He had a career-low in receptions, tied a career-low in receiving TDs, and had the fewest yards he’s recorded since his rookie season. Now, he will be sharing the spotlight with star Odell Beckham Jr. (It still blows my mind that he and OBJ were teammates at LSU.) I have hope that this can be a good thing for Landry. He’s equipped better as a superstar possession receiver than as the primary downfield threat for a team. I think this offense can support more success for each receiver this year than Landry had last year. All that is left to do is watch.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Just how good are these pass catchers?
Even with Antonio Brown playing 15 games last year, JuJu Smith-Schuster was 5th in the NFL in receiving yards and tied for 16th in TDs. On the tight end side, Jesse James and Vance McDonald were both on the field for just over 50% of offensive snaps last season. Even with this split, Vance McDonald finished in the top-12 in both yards and TDs at the position. Now, with Brown and James both out of the picture, there are over 200 vacated targets just from the two of them. Can JuJu and McDonald capitalize? Smith-Schuster probably can’t increase much in yardage, but he could certainly see an uptick in trips to the endzone. McDonald has the upside of increasing across the board. Even if they both take a step forward, this offense will almost certainly produce more than two profitable receivers. Will that come in the form of second-year man James Washington? Or might it be free agent acquisition Donte Moncrief? Maybe what happens is something out of the scope of my predictions. This will likely be one of the most intriguing offenses to watch this season.
